สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 4 มีนาคม 2556
Moody’s thumbs up to Budget 2013
India’s budget is credit positive for its sovereign rating, as it pursues realistic fiscal consolidation, rating agency Moody’s said in a note, indicating that India may have averted risks of a rating downgrade.
In Budget 2013 presented last week by finance minister P. Chidambaram, the government projected a fiscal deficit of 5.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current fiscal and 4.8% of GDP for the next fiscal.
“This plan of modest fiscal consolidation is credit positive for the sovereign because, against a backdrop of subdued GDP growth and upcoming elections, it is a realistic effort to correct India’s macroeconomic imbalances”, Moody’s note said.
Fiscal consolidation could pave the way for monetary easing, which would revive growth, the rating agency said, adding that the extent of easing would depend on whether the Reserve Bank of India, believes that the government has provided evidence of such a commitment in its budget.
(Sources: Livemint, India Everyday, Reuters India, Moneycontrol, NDTV)
5-6% growth not sufficient, says Subbarao
Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao today said a growth rate of 5-6 % is not sufficient for the economy, which has the potential to grow at double digit rate provided some issues are addressed.
Pointing out some of the long-term challenges for the growth, Subbarao said there is a need for stable and predictable macroeconomic environment, removal of infrastructure deficit, skill improvement and job creation.
He said there is also need for raising agriculture productivity, and improvement of social sector outcome.
The long-run drivers of India’s growth story are still intact, he added. However, growth slipped to a decade low of 4.5 % in the third quarter of the current financial year.
(Sources: Business Standard, Times of India, Business Today, Indian Express, Moneycontrol)
Finance Minister P Chidambaram hopes RBI will ease policy rates
Pitching for easy monetary policy in the upcoming review, Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Sunday said that if RBI cuts rates it will help economy to grow at a higher rate of 6.5 % in the next fiscal.
On fiscal side, Government in the last few months have taken several steps including deregulation of fuel price, allowing FDI in multi-brand retail, raising FDI cap in sectors like aviation to boost investors confidence in economy.
Besides, the government also contained fiscal deficit below the targeted level of 5.3 % of GDP in the current fiscal.
The latest Economic Survey released last week said Indian economy is likely grow at a rate of 6.1 to 6.7 % in the next fiscal claiming that the downturn is more or less over and economy is looking up.
RBI is scheduled to unveil mid-quarter review of monetary policy on March 19.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Business Standard, Daily India News, Press Trust of India)
January-March growth likely to remain weak: Experts
Having touched a decade's low of 4.5 % in the last quarter, India's economic growth in the current quarter to March is also likely to remain weak, say experts.
The GDP growth in the October-December quarter slipped to that low level, hit by poor performance of farm, mining and manufacturing sector and may lump more pressure on RBI to respond with an interest rate reduction on March 19.
In its advance estimates for 2012-13, the CSO has projected economic growth rate of 5 %, the lowest in the decade.
Regarding the monetary policy implications of the third quarter growth data, experts said the data is expected to put pressure on the Reserve Bank to respond with an interest rate reduction in its March 19 meeting.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Financial Express, Moneycontrol, i4u, Business Standard)
Indian consumer market likely to be world's largest by 2030
India is expected to emerge as the world's largest consumer market with aggregate spending of USD 13 trillion by 2030, surpassing the likes of China and the US, says a report.
Global consultancy Deloitte has said the rise would be spurred by a growing middle class.
"By 2020, India is projected to be the world's third largest middle class consumer market behind China and the US. By 2030, India is likely to surpass both countries with an aggregated consumer spend of nearly USD 13 trillion," said Deloitte's report, 'India matters: Winning in growth markets'.
(Sources: Economic Times, Financial Express, Indian Express, Business Standard, Peoples Chronicle)
Wary of downgrade, govt attempts to balance Budget
The finance minister pledged in his budget to cut a gaping fiscal deficit in a bid to avert a damaging credit ratings downgrade, but economists remain skeptical he can meet his goal.
In last week's budget P. Chidambaram also hiked spending by a hefty 16 % in an effort to woo India's electorally-crucial rural masses in the countdown to general elections early next year.
But analysts fear his plans are overly ambitious in the face of India's tepid economic growth.
Wary of ratings agencies which have threatened to lower the country's credit rating to junk, the minister promised to slice the fiscal deficit to 4.8 % of GDP in the fiscal year to March 2014, down from 5.2 % currently.
Reigniting foreign confidence in India has been a key aim of Chidambaram since returning to the ministry in 2012 with India needing $75 billion in annual inflows to fund its huge trade deficit.
(Sources: Economic Times, Indiatimes, Daily India News, India Everyday, i4u, Allvoices)
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