สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 17 เมษายน 2556
IMF trims India's growth forecast to 5.7 % this year
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed India's growth forecast for the current calendar in line with it's a moderately lower global growth projection in 2013 but the multilateral lender was cautiously optimistic about its assessment of the world economy.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender pegged India's growth in 2013 at 5.7%, down from 5.9% estimated earlier, but significantly higher than the downward revised 4% in 2012.
Growth prospects have fallen in China and the rest of the BRICS, but are looking up in ASEAN. IMF said supply factors, such as infrastructure or labour market bottlenecks, and domestic policy factors, such as policy uncertainty, have contributed to recent stalling of investment.
(Sources: Economic Times, DNA India, Wall Street Journal, Daily News & Analysis)
IMF pegs 2013 current a/c deficit at 4.9 % of GDP
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected India's CAD to come down to 4.6 % in 2014.
Actual CAD for 2012 and projected ones for 2013 and 2014 are much above the desired level. Recently, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council Chairman C Rangarajan said the country had to bring down its CAD to about 2.5 % to achieve and sustain a higher growth rate.
Gold and oil were the two main culprits for the rise in India's CAD. India officially measures CAD in a financial year. Its CAD was as high as 6.7 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of FY13. CAD during April-December of FY13 was 5.4 % of the GDP.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram had recently said CAD was a bigger worry than fiscal deficit.
IMF projected the CPI inflation to be 10.8 % in 2013, up from 9.3 % in 2012. For 2014, IMF pegged this inflation to be 10.7 %.
(Sources: Business Standard, Smart Investors, NDTV, Moneycontrol, India Everyday)
Private sector accounts for 67 % of investments in UP: Assocham
Private sector accounts for over 67 % of the total outstanding investments worth over $ 106 billion attracted by Uttar Pradesh until December 2012.
With a share of over 5 % in total investment commitments made by the domestic and foreign private sources across India, UP had attracted private sector investments worth over $ 70.37 billion.
These data have emerged in an analysis titled ‘Composition of Outstanding Private Investments Across States’ by Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham).
While the private sector accounts for about 85 % of the total outstanding investments worth about $ 130 billion attracted by Jharkhand, the states of Haryana, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh are other top states where private sector accounts for a share of about 70 % and above in total investments attracted by the state.
(Sources: Business Standard, Smart Investors, Economic Times, Indiatimes, Times of India)
India likely to export 7.5 million tonnes of wheat: FAO
India’s wheat exports are likely to touch a record high of 7.5 million tonnes in the current marketing year ending June 2013 on account of record crop and larger carry over stocks, while many other exporting nations are expected to face tight supplies, a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report said.
In 2011-12 marketing year (July-June), shipments from the country remained low as wheat export was allowed via private trade only after lifting the ban on the same in September 2011, according to market experts.
Russian Federation, the European Union and Australia are forecast to face tight supplies which will lead to reduced exports from these countries, but larger exports by India will help ease the market situation,
The expected sharp retreat in global wheat imports in 2012-13 reflects reduced purchases by several countries, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Turkey and Uzbekistan, the report added.
(Sources: Livemint, Hindu Business Line, Economic Times, Indiatimes, Rediff News, i4u)
Falling gold, oil prices positive for economy: Experts
Sharp decline in prices of gold and crude oil, coupled with softening inflation; augur well for the economy as it will help curb the Current Account Deficit, according to economists.
CAD, which is the difference between outflow and inflow of foreign currency, touched a historic high of 6.7 % in the third quarter (October-December) of 2012-13 on account of higher imports of oil and gold and slowdown in exports.
Dun & Bradstreet said fall in gold and crude prices is a good sign, but the trend needs to continue for better results.
Wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in March fell to a three-year low of 5.96 % due to lower vegetable prices. WPI inflation stood at 6.84 % in February. In March, 2012, it was 7.69 %.
(Sources: Economic Times, Hindu Business Line, NDTV, Moneycontrol, Business Today)
Investors favour India least in Asia-Pacific
This month, India is the least favoured market for investors in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a fund managers' survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The survey added the preference for India among emerging market investors also fell this month.
Asia-Pacific investors were bearish on India — net underweight at 15%. The sentiment among emerging market investors fell from 44 % overweight last month to 27 % underweight this month.
(Sources: Business Standard, Smart Investors, Asian Investor, DNA India, News Now)
Government has all qualities to protect foreign investment: P Chidambaram
On the second leg of his North American tour to woo investors, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that India has all the qualities to guarantee that foreign investment is protected.
Chidambaram, while addressing students and faculty of Harvard University on 'The Rise of the East Implications for the Global Economy', said India has all the qualities that provide guarantee to investors that their investment will be protected.
Chidambaram arrived in Boston after two days in Canada to project India as a viable investment destination.
He said foreign investors should be assured by emerging economies that their capital will be protected and not affected by "whims" of governments.
(Sources: Indian Express, Zeenews, Daily News & Analysis, DNA India, Business World)
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