ADB, India Ratings lower FY26 growth forecast for India on US tariff impact, global uncertainty (mint)
India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 has been revised downward by multiple agencies—ADB to 6.5% (from 6.7%), Ind-Ra to 6.3%, and IMF to 6.2%—due to rising global trade tensions, especially the US-led tariff hikes, and concerns over policy uncertainty affecting investment flows. Despite these headwinds, economic activity remains resilient, driven by strong domestic consumption, revival in rural demand, and robust performance in the services sector, with the HSBC India Services PMI hitting a 10-month high of 60.4 in June. Supportive factors like above-normal monsoon forecasts, easing inflation (projected at 3.8%), and RBI’s record ₹2.69 trillion dividend transfer to the Centre are expected to cushion growth and bolster fiscal stability.
India's export engine faces carbon headwinds as net-zero rules tighten, study says (The Economic Times)
India’s export sector faces mounting pressure from climate-linked trade risks, with over 66% of outbound shipments—worth $824.9 billion in FY25—exposed to stricter net-zero regulations in major markets like the UK and EU. The heavy reliance on coal for electricity inflates carbon footprints across sectors, including IT and services, leaving India at a disadvantage as competitor nations supply the same markets with up to 20 times lower emissions. With carbon border taxes looming from 2026, India must urgently align export competitiveness with decarbonisation goals, even as it works toward a 2070 net-zero target and prepares to update its emissions roadmap at COP30.
India, UK likely to sign FTA today; business heavyweights converge (Business Standard)
India and the UK are set to formally sign their long-awaited Free Trade Agreement at Chequers on Thursday, marking a major milestone in bilateral ties that span over $55 billion in annual trade and $56 billion in mutual investments. The deal eliminates British tariffs on 99% of Indian goods and will phase out duties on 90% of UK exports to India, unlocking new opportunities in sectors like textiles, jewellery, and leather, while boosting job creation and bilateral investment flows. With high-profile business leaders attending and a B2B summit to follow, the pact is poised to significantly deepen economic engagement—especially timely as India eyes a similar trade deal with the US.
