สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 28 มกราคม 2557

Restrictions on gold imports to be reviewed by March-end: Finance Minister

The government is unlikely to lift import restrictions on gold before the end of this financial year, finance minister P Chidambaram indicated on Monday when he said the tight curbs will be reviewed only after March. The finance minister's statement comes amid hectic lobbying by gold traders and jewellers for lowering of the import barriers and a roll back of the high import duty following dramatic improvement in the country's current account deficit. The government had imposed a series of curbs on gold imports in 2013, including raising Customs duty to 10 per cent from 2 per cent in three tranches, to rein in the country's ballooning current account deficit, which touched an all-time high of 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2012-13. Gold is the country's second-biggest import. The Reserve Bank of India also imposed curbs on gold imports such as the 80:20 rule, which mandated export of 20 per cent of gold imported. Gold and silver imports fell to $27.3 billion in April-December from $39.2 billion during the year-ago period. The current account deficit in the first half of the fiscal was down to $26.9 bil-lion from $37.9 billion in the year ago period. It is projected to decline to $45 billion in the current fiscal from $88 billion last year.

(Source: Economic Times)

Gold import: Govt may axe 80:20 scheme

The government is considering doing away with the controversial 80:20 scheme for gold import, in a bid to partially relax the restrictions on import of the yellow metal that led to a surge in smuggling. The scheme was introduced in July last year to check rising current account deficit.Earlier last week, UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi had written a letter to commerce minister Anand Sharma seeking action on demands made by gems and jewellery exporters for a cut in customs duty on gold and relaxation in the 80:20 rule. According to the scheme, gold importers have to ensure that at least 20 per cent of every lot of import is exported. Meanwhile, finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday said that the Centre will revisit some of the restrictions on gold import but only when it has a firm grip on CAD. The official said the scheme has though proved to be a big deterrent for importers, an adverse fallout has been a rise in smuggling of gold, which has risen to the tune of 1-3 tonne per month.

(Source: Financial Express)

3,000kg of gold being smuggled in a month: Chidambaram

Finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday acknowledged a spurt in gold smuggling in the wake of higher duties and other curbs on the import of the yellow metal into the country. While estimating illegal shipments of up to 3,000kg in certain months — a record by all accounts — the minister justified the restrictions, citing high current account deficit (CAD) but indicated that some of the tightening may be eased in the next few months.  The government had increased customs duty on gold to 10 per cent and later RBI imposed import restriction by linking it to exports in an attempt to lower the ballooning CAD which was $88 billion last fiscal. This year, the government hopes to contain CAD at around $50 billion by bringing down gold imports. Chidambaram said after implementation of goods and services tax, the relative contribution of customs duty to revenue would decline, but it would continue to perform a critical function as sentinels of our borders and facilitators of legitimate trade. Speaking to reporters outside North Block later, economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram said the CAD currently was below $50 billion and expressed confidence that deficit would be within the budget estimates.

(Source: Economic Times)

FICCI projects FY14 growth at 4.8%

A survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry on Monday pegged economic growth at an 11-year low of 4.8 per cent in 2013-14 against five per cent in the previous year. The figure is based on a median forecast, which means half of those surveyed pegged economic growth at less  than 4.8 per cent and half over that. The World Bank had also projected India’s economy to grow at 4.8 per cent, a tad lower than Prime Minister Manmohan  Singh's expectation of five per cent. Also based on a median forecast, the economy  is pegged to grow at five per cent in the third quarter, better than 4.8 per cent in the second quarter. If the economy indeed grows at five per cent, it will break a trend of sub-five per cent economic expansion witnessed for four quarters in a row till the second quarter of 2013-14. The growth in the fourth quarter of the current financial year is projected at 5.2%. Economists’ outlook for industrial sector remained weak for the current fiscal owing to persistent weak demand and lackadaisical investments. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is estimated to grow by 1.5% in the current financial year, below 1.7% projected in the previous survey. On the external front, situation has improved discernibly and the estimated CAD to GDP ratio has been revised downwards. The ratio is estimated at 1.9% for Q3 FY14, much lower than 4.5% estimated in the previous round. Further, it is projected at 3% for the year 2013-14, lower than the revised target of 3.8% by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. To carry forward this impetus and to keep CAD within manageable levels, exports need to grow at near double digits for the coming months, felt respondents to the survey. However, exports grew just in single digits in December for the second month in a row.

(Source: Business Standard)

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