สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 18 กุมภาพันธ์ 2557

Highlights - India's 2014/15 interim budget

The government's term ends in May and the measure was necessary to cover expenditure until a national election is completed and a new administration installed. Chidambaram said India's economy, the 11th largest in the world, had stabilised and was showing signs of turnaround.

GROWTH-GDP expansion in third and fourth quarters of 2013/14 estimated at 5.2 percent. Growth for the whole year expected at 4.9 percent.

FISCAL DEFICIT-Fiscal deficit seen at 4.6 percent of GDP in 2013/14, below target of 4.8 percent.  •Fiscal deficit projected at 4.1 percent of GDP in 2014/15  •Says need to bring down the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2016/17

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT-•Current account deficit for 2013/14 estimated at $45 billion from last fiscal year's $88 billion. •Forex reserves to rise by $15 billion by end of 2013/14

BORROWING/DEBT SERVICING-•Gross market borrowing for 2014/15 seen at 5.97 trillion rupees, net market borrowing at 4.57 trillion rupees. •Government plans to buy back/switch bonds of 500 billion rupees in 2014/15. •Ways and Means advances for 2014/15 estimated at 100 billion rupees •Debt repayment in 2014/15 seen at 1.397 trillion rupees •Interest payments seen rising to 4.27 trillion rupees in 2014/15 from a revised estimate of 3.8 trillion rupees for the current fiscal year.

PRIVATISATION-•Target from stake sale in state run firms for 2013/14 revised to 258.41 billion rupees •Target for 2014/15 increased to 569.25 billion rupees

SPENDING-•Plan expenditure for 2014/15 seen at 5.55 trillion rupees, the same level as the previous fiscal year •Non plan spending estimated at about 12.08 trillion rupees in 2014/15

SUBSIDIES-•Total spending on food, fertilisers and fuel at 2.5 trillion rupees in 2014/15 •Food subsidy estimated at 1.15 trillion rupees, fertiliser subsidy at 679.71 billion rupees. •Petroleum subsidy seen at 634.27 billion rupees versus revised figure of 854.8 billion rupees for 2013/14.

DEFENCE-•Spending raised to 2.24 trillion rupees in 2014/15, up 10 percent year on year. 

EXPORTS-Merchandise exports seen at $326 billion in 2013/14, up 6.3 percent year on year. •Agriculture exports expected to touch $45 billion in 2013/14, up from $41 billion in 2012/13

TAX PROPOSALS-•No major change in tax rates •Factory gate tax to be reduced to 10 percent from 12 percent on some capital goods, consumer durables •Cut excise duty on small cars, two wheelers, commercial vehicles to 8 percent from 12 percent •Recommends excise duty reductions on larger vehicles -Restructure of factory gate tax for mobile handsets

BANKS RESTRUCTURING •Govt to provide 112 billion rupees capital infusion in state run banks in 2014/15 •Propose to set up public debt management office to start work from 2014/15

(Source: Reuters India)

Five Things that got cheaper with the interim budget

Finance minister P Chidambaram presented the 2014 interim budget on Monday, saying the economy was more stable today than two years ago. He sought to win over key sections such as scheduled castes, minorities, women, farmers and army personnel with more money for their welfare while pleasing the middle class with excise cuts to make cars, mobile phones and items of daily consumption cheaper.   Summary of Interim Budget

Cars/SUVs: Excise duties reduced by 4% for small and mid size cars, 3% for large cars and 6% for SUVs. The reduction was much-needed for an industry that is poised for a second consecutive annual decline in sales. 

Impact: Prices of cars would come down by Rs. 8,000-150,000 while SUVs would cost less by Rs. 40,000-120,000. It should bring consumers back into the showrooms.

Motorcycles and scooters: Excise duties reduced by 4% for all two-wheelers. Duties also reduced for trucks, buses and chasis.

Impact: Motorcycles would be cheaper by Rs. 1,500 for commuter bikes and Rs. 10,000 for high end bikes. Scooters will also see a similar reduction in price.

Capital goods: The excise duty for capital goods such as televisons, refrigerators, heavy machinery, boilers, electrical machinery and sound recorders has been reduced from 12% to 10%.

Impact: Capital good manufacture gets a boost and food product items get cheaper.

Consumer non-durables: Excise duty for non-durable products such processed food, clothing, daily utility items such as soap slashed from 12% to 10%.

Impact: There will be a slight reduction in the price of these products.

Mobile handsets: In order to provide a fillip to manufacturers of mobile handsets within the country, the finance minister decreased the excise duty from 10% to 6% for all categories of handsets. This has been done to encourage domestic production of handsets and will offer further boost to develop the domestic mobile capabilities.

Impact: A marginal drop in prices of mobile handsets in the coming months.

Cord blood banks: Cord blood banks, which store placental umbilical cords for future use, have been exempted from service tax net.

Impact: The service will become cheaper and expected to gain popularity.

(Source: Hindustan Times)

Platinum gains at gold’s expense during 2013

At a time when gold imports have come down drastically due to government intervention to bridge trade deficit, platinum imports have almost doubled. According to bullion dealers, platinum imports have touched 40 tonne in 2013 from 18 tonne in 2012.  The demand has been driven by retail jewellery sales though platinum as an investment product has not gathered much momentum in India where gold is still regarded as the best investment option. Rising gold prices due to a supply crunch have also pushed up demand for silver, the poor man's gold.  While platinum demand is more of an urban phenomenon, silver demand has been driven by rural populace.  Prithviraj Kothari, vice-president, Bombay Bullion Association, said: "Platinum prices went down by $200 per troy ounce in 2013 compared to gold which made this precious metal popular among aspiring young Indians. Platinum import is pegged at 40-45 tonne in 2013, which is much higher than 2012. There are no restrictions on platinum imports unlike gold. A supply crunch in gold has pushed up the premium on gold, making the yellow metal costlier which has not happened in the case of platinum."

(Source: Economic Times)

Will look into easing gold import curbs: Chidambaram

India will look into relaxing gold imports curbs, but won't let its current account deficit (CAD) balloon, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Monday. "There are pros and cons (on easing gold import curbs), we will weigh them carefully, the goal is to contain the CAD at a level where it can be fully and safely financed," Chidambaram told reporters after presenting the interim budget in parliament earlier. India, desperate to trim a gaping current account deficit, took a slew of measures last year to curb demand for bullion, its second-biggest import after oil. Due to the restrictions on imports, China has surpassed India as the world's biggest buyer of gold. Industry participants had expected a cut in import duty from the record 10 percent on gold in the interim budget.

(Source: Reuters India)

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