สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 12 มีนาคม 2557

Govt working to relax gold import curbs: Comm Secy

The commerce ministry today said the government is working towards relaxation of curbs on the gold imports. Gems and jewellery exporters, who contribute to about 15 percent of the country's total shipments, are demanding for the relaxations saying the curbs are impacting the exports. Gems and jewellery exports dipped 4.18 percent to USD 3.59 billion in February. During the 11-month period of the fiscal, the shipments declined by 7.15 per cent to USD 35.73 billion. Gold and silver imports declined 71.4 percent to USD 1.63 billion in February. The government had increased customs duty on gold to 10 per cent and banned import of gold coins and medallions, while the RBI linked imports of the metal to exports. India is the largest importer of gold, which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery industry. Imports stood at about 830 tonnes in 2012-13. Commerce and Industry Ministry has said that over- regulation is encouraging smuggling of the yellow metal. In 2013, the value of gold bars and biscuits seized amounted to Rs 271.15 crore.

(Source: Money Control)

RBI may have to buy dollar to keep rupee on leash

Just a few months ago, the Reserve Bank of India had to sell record amounts of dollars to prevent the collapse of the rupee as global investors fled the market because of a deteriorating economy and talk of the US Federal Reserve scaling back its stimulus programme, among other reasons. But the central bank may soon start having to buy the US currency to prevent the rupee from strengthening to a point where it starts hurting the economy. It may also buy from currently copious inflows  to create a foreign exchange reserve buffer that would be about 10% lower than what it was in 2008, when the global financial crisis broke out, sparking a market rout. Dollar purchases will also protect exports from getting hit by weakening emerging market currencies, including the Chinese yuan, said traders and economists. The Indian rupee's gain of nearly 4% since Raghuram Rajan took over as central bank governor in September may be a sign of approval for his policies. But keeping exports healthy is critical as they have helped in lowering the current account deficit, which had widened to a record last year.

(Source: Economic Times)

 Indian debt sees $6-bn inflows, lifts Indian rupee to 7-month high

High yields on Indian paper continue to lure foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who have pumped in close to $6 billion into the country’s bond market in 2014 so far, driving up the rupee. The Indian rupee hit a seven-month high of 60.79 on Monday on the back of sustained inflows, primarily into the debt market. “The high local yields and expectations of a stable currency are responsible for the sustained debt inflows this year,” said Brijen Puri, head of trading at JPMorgan Chase. A sharp rise in short-term rates had prompted foreign investors to buy treasury bills and commercial paper; of the $5.8 billion in FII flows that have come in, $4 billion has flowed into short-term paper. Three-month treasury bills offer a yield of 9.20% while commercial papers are priced even more attractively at 10.0-10.25%. However, with investment limits in short-term paper having been breached at the end of February, FIIs appear to have turned their attention to the most liquid long-term bonds. In the first five sessions of March, FIIs have invested $1.24 billion in Indian bonds.

(Source: Financial Express)

 Exports see first fall in 8 months; rupee's strength mars outlook

India’s merchandise exports in February recorded their first decline in eight months, surprising analysts and dashing policy makers’ hope of meeting the $325-billion target for the current financial year. Given the rupee’s recent strength against the dollar, the outlook for export growth remains weak. The country’s exports fell 3.67 per cent in the month to $25.68 billion, against $26.68 billion in the year-ago period. During the first 11 months of the financial year, exports stood at $282.77 billion, up 4.79 per cent over that in the corresponding period of 2012-13, data released by the commerce department showed on Tuesday. Imports in the month, meanwhile, declined 17.09 per cent to $33.82 billion, against $40.79 billion in February last year. This drop was mainly on account of non-oil imports, which contracted 24.5 per cent to $20.12 billion from $26.66 billion in the year-ago period. Petroleum imports fell 3.1 per cent to $13.70 billion, compared with $14.13 billion in the same month last year. The fall in exports and a greater decline in imports narrowed the country’s trade deficit by as much as 42.42 per cent to $8.13 billion, compared with $14.12 billion in February last year. This augurs well for the current account deficit, which is already narrowing. In the first 11 months, the trade deficit declined 28.95 per cent to $128.09 billion from $179.93 billion in the year-ago period. Exports of top items in the export basket — petroleum, engineering, gems & jewellery and pharmaceuticals -contracted in February. Petroleum exports plunged 10.36 per cent to $4.91 billion, engineering fell 2.76 per cent to $5.02 billion, gems & jewellery declined 4.18 per cent to $3.59 billion and pharma was down 1.62 per cent to $1.17 billion. These items constituted 57 per cent of total exports in February.

(Source: Business Standard)

Economic Section

Royal Thai Embassy