สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจอินเดียประจำวันที่ 13 มีนาคม 2557

Experts' views: Consumer inflation slows to 8.10% y/y in February

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) eased more than expected to a 25-month low of 8.1 percent in February, helped by moderating food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. A Reuters poll had forecast retail inflation would slow to 8.35 percent from an annual 8.79 percent in January. A below 8 percent core inflation print for the first time in seven months is also a positive development.  This is likely to strengthen the view that the Reserve Bank of India will keep repo rates on hold in its April meeting. However we are likely to see an upmove in CPI inflation from April 2014 onwards as summer season pushes up vegetable prices. We were expecting growth to enter the positive zone albeit at a very low level, as is being signalled by the PMI for manufacturing. CPI inflation is in line, but don't think the trend is sustainable because sooner than later the current crop damage due to the untimely rains is going to impact the food price trajectory. Both CPI and IIP (industrial output) have come in better than expectations. The decline in food prices has continued for the third consecutive month. However, with recent rains, there may be a rise in fruit and some vegetable prices going ahead. Moreover, with the base effect coming into play, there is a possibility that inflation may rise again in the coming months.

(Source: Economic Times)

February retail inflation slows to 25-month low of 8.1 per cent

Overall inflation in the food basket, including beverages, slowed to 8.57 per cent in February from 9.9 per cent in the previous month, according to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the government today. The rate at which vegetable prices increased eased to 14.04 per cent as against 21.91 per cent in January. Prior to the month under review, the lowest CPI was recorded in January 2012 at 7.65 per cent, which inched up to 8.83 per cent in the following month. Retail inflation was at 8.79 per cent in January. Retail or consumer inflation also slowed in protein-rich items such as eggs, fish and meat to 9.69 per cent in February versus 11.69 per cent in January. The rate of price rise slowed to 9.93 per cent for cereals and related products from 11.42 per cent in January. However, the pace of price increases for milk and its products picked up in February to 10.37 per cent from 9.82 per cent in the previous month. The prices of fruits, condiments and spices also rose faster last month. The RBI, which has maintained a hawkish interest rate regime to tame inflation, is scheduled to announce the next monetary policy on April 1. Industry has been demanding a cut in interest rates to boost economic growth, which has slowed to a decade-low level. Retail inflation has been easing for three months. The CPI data showed inflation rates for rural and urban areas were at 8.51 per cent and 7.55 per cent, respectively.  In January, the wholesale price inflation rate fell to an eight-month low. Wholesale inflation data for February will be out on Friday.

(Source: Economic Times)

'India to miss exports target of $325 bn in current fiscal'

Attributing the fall in February exports to decline in outbound shipments of gems & jewellery and petroleum, Director General of Foreign Trade Anup Pujari today said India will not be able to achieve the exports target of $ 325 billion in the current fiscal. India's exports declined 3.67 per cent to $25.68 billion in February. Exports of petroleum dipped 10.36 per cent to $4.91 billion, while gems and jewellery exports dipped 4.18 per cent to $3.59 billion in February. Besides, imports fell 17.09 per cent to $33.81 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $8.13 billion.

(Source: Economic Times)

Access to capital for domestic companies, investors is our key guiding principle

MS Sahoo, secretary, Institute of Company Secretaries of India, also heads the committee reviewing the regulations for external commercial borrowings (ECBs). Sahoo, a former member of Sebi, told Arup Roychoudhury in an interview that his panel will look at many capital market regulations over the coming months to reduce regulatory oversight and provide investors with a fair regime.

Your panel looked at overhauling the ADR/GDR scheme in the past. Now you are critically examining ECB norms. What are the principles guiding the work of the committee?

First, domestic firms should have access to capital and financial services on terms that match those abroad so that there is fair competition. Second, the investors — domestic and foreign — should have a level playing field in terms of access to capital markets subject to the partial capital control regime in vogue. Third, there should not be any regulatory intervention that can distort the freedom of choice of the firms and investors unless there is likelihood or evidence of market failure. Fourth, the remedy for misuse of any mode of access or participation should not be its prohibition. The solution lies in addressing the misuse by upgrading capability to prevent, detect and penalise the misuse.

What other responsibilities has the committee been tasked with?

Our committee has been asked to look at regulations (or the absence of that) with regard to Indian depository receipts (IDRs), direct listing of Indian companies, dual listing of Indian companies, residence-based taxation vis-a-vis source-based taxation and relationship between authorities in Indian and foreign jurisdictions. We haven't yet started discussing them yet so I cannot comment at this stage. But the principles guiding us would most likely be the same — a level playing field.

How does one improve the confidence of investors in securities markets?

First, investors should know how to invest. Second, market participants must disclose to investors everything about the products they offer. Third, investors should have the reassurance that only fit and proper persons have been allowed to participate in the market. Fourth, if at all investors lose money due to fraud or systemic failure, they are indemnified. The attempt should be to improve the quality of these measures and removing unregulated segments of market which have been the bane of our extant regulatory architecture.

In today's age, how important is regulation for professions like company secretaries, chartered accountants and auditors?

There is an increasing organisation of economic activity. We have over 10 lakh companies and 10 lakh not-for-profit organisations. The state does not and cannot have capacity to exercise oversight on this burgeoning number. It is increasingly using professionals on its behalf to exercise oversight on these organisations. Generally, the professions start with self-regulatory and gradually move to an external, statutory regulation. For example, there are statutory bodies like the Institute of Company Secretaries of India which is responsible for regulation of company secretaries.

How does the new Companies Act impact company secretaries? Would it enhance the scope of the profession in coming years?

It will have a profound impact as it enhances the accountability of various professionals and explicitly delineates their duties and responsibilities. As the law would evolve continuously and consequently, every company secretary will have to be always on the learning curve. As regards scope, the law may assign certain responsibilities to a profession, but its role depends on its core competence and values. However, the enhanced responsibilities and accountability in the new law has transited company secretaries in to governance professionals.

(Source: Financial Express)

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